Climate Change Impacts in Nepal

Nepal is the fourth most vulnerable country in terms of climate risks and 30th in terms of water-induced disaster. Climate change is posing additional threat to Nepal. Nepal's average annual mean temperature has increased by 0.06 degree celsius between 1977 and 2000 and these increases are more pronounced at higher altitudes and in winter. There is a general increase in temperature extremes with warmer days and nights becoming more frequent and cooler days and nights less frequent.

A study conducted by Nepal Country Vulnerability Study Team in 2009 has projected that Nepal’s mean annual temperature may rise by 1.4 degree Celsius by 2030, 2.8 degree Celsius by 2060 and by 4.7 degree Celsius by 2090.As the temperature increment 1.5 is in very near future 2030, Nepal needs to be prioritized in terms of Climate change adaptation measures as well as to increase the resilience towards the effect of Climate change.

There is general agreement within the climate community that changes in the frequency or intensity of extreme climate events i.e. Climate variability would have profound impacts on nature and society.

- For precipitation, the trends are less certain but there is evidence of increasing occurrence of intense rainfall events, and an increase in flood days and generally more variable river flows.

- An OECD study (2003) reveals that there will be no change in precipitation in western Nepal and up to 5-10 % increase in precipitation in eastern Nepal. During the summer months, its projection depict that an increase in precipitation for the whole country in the range of 15-20%.

- In terms of spatial distribution, the study findings project an increase in monsoon rainfall in eastern and central Nepal as compared to western Nepal.

-It also projects an increase in monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall, an increase in the intensity of rainfall, and a decrease in winter precipitation.

Nepal should be concerned because of the warming trend evidence and as well as the extreme weather events. Also Young and fragile geology of Nepal are very sensitive to the climate changes. Nepal is one of the poorest countries. Poorest countries and the poorest within them are most vulnerable. Because they are the most exposed and have the least means to adapt. and low adaptive capacity to cope with risks

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Nepal’s agriculture is facing risks due to changes in the reliability of stream flow, a more intense and potentially erratic monsoon rainfall and flooding. About 64% of cultivated areas are fully dependent on monsoon rainfall.Decline in rainfall from November to April adversely affects the winter and spring crops. Rice yields are sensitive to climatic conditions and may fall in western region and it may threaten overall food security. A study carried out by B.R Regmi and A. Adhikary in 2007 reveals that climate change is posing threat to food security due to loss of some local land races and crops.

Regarding Rainfall, It some major findings are as follows;

-Decreasing rainfall trend in Consecutive Dry Days.

- Increase in Very Wet Days.

-Increasing Annual Total Wet-Day Precipitation.

Temperature in Nepal shows the events as below;

-Days and nights are both becoming warmer. Increase in Warm spell duration

-Fewer Cool nights and cool days.

It has impacted the water resources (i.e. both Glacier retreating and ground water). Glaciers are excellent indicators of Climate Change. The retreat of such glaciers results in the formation of the treacherous glacier lakes. There is a risk of catastrophic glacier lake outburst flood.

 Nepal’s high altitude glaciers are thinning (30 cm-1 m) and retreating at an alarming rate (10-20m annually), faster than the world average, resulting in an increase in the number and size of glacial lakes and the threat of catastrophic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Lake Imja Tsho is an example of a glacier lake which was non-existent in 1960 and now covers nearly one square kilometre. The Imja glacier that feeds the lake has retreated 75 m between 2001 and 2006.

 The new inventory identified 3,808 glaciers with a total area of 4212 sq.km and 1,466 glacial lakes in Nepal (ICIMOD 2011). The rapid reduction in glaciers has profound future implication for downstream water resources.

 There are about 21 potentially dangerous glacial lakes identified by ICIMOD, among which 6 are most critical.

 A study carried out under Sagun Program of Care Nepal in 2009 on CC Impacts on livelihoods of poor and     Vulnerable Communities and Biodiversity Conservation: A case study in Banke, Bardia, Dhading, and Rasuwa Districts of Nepal reveals that if atmospheric C02 concentration is doubled, it will reduce Nepal’s forest types from 15 to 12.

Some Projected Impact according to the IPCC IV Assessment Report, 2007,

 Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, and rock avalanches from destabilized slopes, and to affect water resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede.

 Freshwater availability in central, south, east and Southeast Asia is projected to decrease due to climate change.

 Crop yield could decrease up to 30% in central and south Asia by the mid-21st century. However yield could increase in colder environments. Insect outbreaks could increase.

 Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrheal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise. Increased risk of heat-related mortality. Reduced human mortality from decreased cold exposure.

Along with above listed impacts,

- Nepal is a disaster prone country due to rugged, steep topography and fragile geological conditions.

-Water induced disasters such as Floods and landslides due to heavy rainfall could be expected to be more common.

-Increase of GLOFs risks.

So to address the impact of Climate change in Nepal following measures should be taken.

• Conduct studies on impacts of climate change and adaptation measures including projection of future climate change

• Need for more regional and national integrated assessment of impacts linked with development plans

• Need to understand local climate change related hazards and develop mitigation and adaptation programs to minimize risks at the local and regional level.

• Need for more collaborative effort and scientific studies.

Nepal is vulnerable to climate variability and Climate Change due to exposure to risks. IPCC predicts that approximately 20 to 30% of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5 to 2.5 degree Celsius. Nepal is vulnerable to climate variability and Climate Change due to exposure to risks and also the study suggesting the rise of 1.5 degree Celsius by 2030 in Nepal, the adaptation measures must be initiated as soon as possible as to reduce the impacts in Nepal.